Since launching the Data Dive Series in 2024, we’ve been honored to grow our community to nearly 2,000 subscribers who share our passion for data-driven insights. As we begin 2025, we’re taking a brief departure from our usual data analysis to explore something equally vital: our hope and expectations for Canadian international education in the year ahead.
Since the late 2000s, when Canada first started making its mark in the international mobility space, Canada has not faced a major crisis. The year 2024 changed that. We now face the most severe crisis, from application caps to dampening demand and institutions announcing job cuts; it’s been a nightmarish year. As someone who chose Canada as my home and deeply believes that “The world needs more Canada,” I hold an unshakable belief in the strength of our education system. Our institutions have long stood as beacons of opportunity for students worldwide, offering world-class education and pathways to success.
However, as we step into 2025, it’s clear that the international education sector in Canada faces challenges that demand bold, transformative action.
Hope: Reclaiming the Narrative and Aligning with Market Needs
Canada’s institutions must step up to define their messaging, moving away from outsourcing our brand’s narrative. The focus in messaging needs to be laser-focused on what we do best – prepare students for the evolving needs of Canada’s labor market. Canadian Institutions can help students become what Canada needs, positioning themselves as partners in their success. The alignment of programs with long-term shortage occupations. This is reflected in the CIP list, and must become the cornerstone of this messaging.
The value proposition for international students has become complicated, and the messaging needs to be more nuanced. It’s not open for everyone seasonally anymore. But for the right students choosing the right career and with the right resources, there are tremendous opportunities. No one can do this better than the institutions and partners that are invested in the long-term sustainable growth of Canada as an international education destination.
Expectation: A Shifting Enrolment Landscape
The enrolment picture for 2025 will likely reflect further declines, especially in colleges where changes to the PGWP eligibility have been felt most acutely. Programs in business and hospitality, long-standing drivers of enrolment, have faced drastic reductions in visa approvals.
Enrolments at most institutions could fall to 25-40% of 2023 levels/ This is a significant contraction for both institutions and the labor market. That said, universities are expected to weather the storm slightly better, as they remain unaffected by the PGWP changes. However, even they will face challenges as international student demand recalibrates amidst these policy changes.
The Path Forward
While the road ahead involves short-term pain, it is also a moment of opportunity. Institutions must adopt a proactive stance, focusing on career-aligned programs and directly engaging students in meaningful ways. By taking control of their messaging and building strong narratives around labor market outcomes, institutions can attract smaller but more committed cohorts of students who are better aligned with Canada’s needs.
As Peter Thiel said in Zero to One, “Today’s best practices lead to dead ends; the best paths are new and untried.” It’s time for Canada’s institutions to forge these new paths. By doing so, they can not only navigate the current challenges but also lay the foundation for a sustainable and successful future in international recruitment.
